At which stage does each team get knocked out? Model
(KU Leuven + 538 consensus, derived from reach-stage
probabilities) vs Polymarket's per-team Stage of Elimination markets, de-vigged.
Generated 2026-06-18 23:32 UTC.
Model:Cells:
Each cell: probability the team is eliminated at that stage — model % over de-vigged
market %, shaded by the gap:model higher
market higher. Champ = wins the tournament.
Click a column to sort by its gap.